WHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUT PERMANENTLY (8-2003)

What happens when the lights go out?

New Yorkers, along with much of the Northeast, found that 
out last Thursday when a power blackout caused city life to 
screech to a halt. Not only did the lights go out, but 
everything that is run by electricity stopped working.

Subways stopped running, stranding hundreds of commuters in 
the blackness of the underground tunnels. Elevators stalled 
between floors. Taxis, buses, and personal vehicles were 
gridlocked because all the traffic signals stopped working. 
Airplanes were grounded. And air conditioners quit working, 
leaving everyone sweltering in 90-degree heat.

The blackout occurred from New York to Ontario, affecting 
people in cities such as Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, and 
Ottawa. Fortunately, the cause was not a terrorist strike, 
as many feared, and the power began coming back on by early 
evening.

But what if it hadn’t? What if the blackout had been 
permanent?

This time, the outage was not triggered by a shortage of 
fuel. It was traced to the failure of a power plant in 
Manhattan. This caused a domino effect that spread to much 
of the Northeast and into Canada. 

But if Dr. Richard Duncan is correct, sometime between 2007 
and 2012, blackouts such as the one that hit the Northeast 
will become commonplace. Some will even be permanent.

Duncan basis his prediction on something called the Olduvai 
Theory. He named it after the famous Olduvai Gorge, because 
it symbolically represents the human species becoming 
metaphoric lemmings as we run head-first off the cliff into 
oblivion, thanks to global energy shortages that have 
already begun.

I’ve never subscribed to the rants of most prophets of 
doom. But Duncan is a respected scientist who has spent his 
life’s work in electrical power management. He is well 
verse in anthropology, archaeology, and statistical 
analysis. 

It’s scary to contemplate, but the theory is well grounded 
in historical data. As Duncan puts it, “The theory is easy 
to understand, it is difficult (i.e. distressing) for most 
people to accept — just as it was for me.” 

He first proposed his theory in 1989 and revised it 
slightly in 2000. The Olduvai Theory states that industrial 
civilization will last no longer than 100 years, beginning 
in 1930 and continuing, perhaps, until 2030.

He bases this theory on the production of petroleum per 
capita, which peaked in 1979. His assumptions are that no 
vast new oil reserves will be found, that human population 
will grow at an exponential rate, and that we will continue 
to use energy, per capita, at a constant rate. 

So what happens around 2030 if his theory proves correct? 
Civilization will be back in the Dark Ages, with a new 
Stone Age just around the corner. Duncan’s unthinkable 
conclusion is this, “If God made the earth for human 
habitation, then He made it for the Stone Age mode of 
habitation.”

So what now? Do we just shrug our shoulders and accept the 
inevitable?

Duncan’s analysis is based on a combination of historic 
facts and current trends. If those current trends are 
changed, there may be some leeway in the final outcome, at 
least with its timing.

If, for example, the world population started to stabilize 
and then decrease, the energy usage per capita curve would 
level off instead of dropping precipitously as is now 
predicted. If humans became, say, 30 percent more efficient 
in their use of energy, the final collapse of industrial 
civilization would be pushed back a few more years.

The problem with conservation is that it only delays the 
inevitable. The only way to put it off indefinitely is to 
find a brand new source of energy. But we have become so 
complacent, taking electricity totally for granted, that 
the thought of having to live without it one day never 
crosses our minds.

Petroleum is a limited resource that will run out. That’s a 
cold, hard fact. If we are to survive in the modern world 
of electricity we must find an alternative way to produce 
it on a mammoth scale. 

That job will not be a legacy for our children, because if 
we wait that long it will be too late. The alternative fuel 
sources must be found before this generation has passed or 
the next generation may be the first one to inhabit the New 
Stone Age.